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SPL Betting Tips: September 19th, 2020

Graeme Written on Friday, September 18th, 2020

First of all my apologies again for another slack week in terms of posting betting tips.

On the sports tips front, I’ve just been overwhelmed with work and this week had a few additional things I had to put my research into.

The NFL takes up a lot of my time (although it’s worth it as I am now 10-4 over at SportsBettingTips.org and this week I also had to cover the US Open. Winged Foot was such a unique setup that it took me so mong to research that one.

If you’re a wrestling fan, the NJPW G1 Climax is starting this weekend and I’ve written up NJPW G1 Climax Betting Tips. That was a lot of work too as for that you have to kind of plan out the entire tournament.

Anyhoo HOPEFULLY I will be back in the rhyhm now with NHL slowing down in terms of games.

I’ve dived into the advanced metrics in the Scottish Premier League for this week and have the following tips:

Scottish Premier League Bets:

Celtic vs Livingston: Celtic have the best goalscoring record in the league currently and it isn’t a surprise. They have a whopping xG of 2.51 per game and are extremely competent offensively. Livingston have conceded 11 goals so far this season with an xGa of 1.49. I think Celtic – if they can remain consistent – will score at least 3 or 4 goals here. I am going to go with 3u on Celtic to score at least 3 goals at 1.72 odds. I was tempted by the handicap and it’s slightly better odds but I’ll stick with this one as a safer play.

Dundee Utd vs St. Mirren: Just a player prop here – Ian Harkes is someone who likes to take a lot of shots from distance. The metrics suggest a long distance goal could take it. 0.5u on anytime scorer at 6.00 odds.

Kilmarnock vs Hamilton: Hamiltons stats are poor anyway with 2.68 xG per game and they are without 4 players. Kilmarnock are a point below them in the league but I like Kilmarnock to get the win here. I’m going to go with 1u on Killie -1 at 2.62 odds. Win to nil is tempting too but I’ll go with the handicap.

St. Johnstone vs Ross County: Both teams have an xG of over 1.0 in each game however also concede an xG of over 1.0 per game. Basically that math compared to the odds make Both Teams to Score a good bet. 3u on that at 1.95 odds.

Hibernian vs Rangers: This is an interesting one. Initially when I looked at xG stats I thought Hibs or Draw was a good bet. Both teams with great defensive records. However when you look at it Hibs actually concede 1.47 per game xG wise so basically they are playing above expectations and are due to leak goals. Rangers have 178 shots so far this season so Rangers should probably be the team to do that. I’m not going to bet this one as I don’t think the odds are there for any play.

Aberdeen vs Motherwell: Neither team really creates a lot here and Aberdeen have 0.78 xG per game and Motherwell 1.04. Got to think this is a low scoring game. Alas under 2.5 goals is 1.66 and that just feels too low for me. No bet.

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(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/09/18 11:30:29 AM EST but are subject to change)

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