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SPL Bets: September 26, 2020

Graeme Written on Friday, September 25th, 2020

Alright another week has passed and another week of data has been gathered for the Scottish Premier League and the advanced metrics.

It’s been a bit hit or miss but hopefully we get going this week now there is more data.

We have a good schedule of the usual 6 games. I’ve tried to factor in any anomalies etc. However we have a decent amount of data to pour over and can start seeing any trends that are taking off and others that are starting to simmer down.

I’ll be honest I’ve had a few beers and don’t feel like writing too much right now ha so let’s just jump into the numbers and bets:

SPL Bets: September 26th, 2020

Hamilton vs Dundee Utd: It’s been a rough start to the SPL for Hamilton although they have two away victories to their credit. Dundee Utd had a tough run of 3 games with no goals however got that St Mirren win. Either way neither team creates many chances. xG for both teams is 1.10 and 1.14. When you look at how many open play chances they create a game it’s only 7.63 for Dundee Utd and 6 for Hamilton. Unless set pieces have a big play, this game should go under. 0,5u on under 2.5 goals at 1.80.

Livingston vs St Johnstone: This is an interesting one – St Johnstone are underdogs but I think that may be a mistake. Yes Livingston have been pretty good at goalscoring lately including those 2 against hte Tims – but I think with the open way they play. St Johnstone can take full advantage here. St Johnston have the 3rd highest xG in the league and I like them to turn the corner starting with this game and see the luck going their way. 1u on St Johnstone to win at 3.00 odds.

St Mirren vs Kilmarnock: St Mirren come into this on a bad spell with 4 losses in a row and have also conceded the most chances this season. Kilmarnock aren’t great but you line them up with St Mirren they are the better team. Not as confident as I am with the St Johnstone bet especially considering the odds so just 0.5u on St Mirren to win.

Motherwell vs Rangers: As a Rangers fan I am gutted our clean sheet streak is over. This one is a tough call. Rangers should win this one but -1.5 just doesn’t have the value. Motherwell also are solid defensively so it’s pretty much a coinflip. No value here.

Ross County vs Aberdeen:Neither team really enjoy scoring especially Ross County. Aberdeen are generally very clinical in that they score and then defend. County have 7 with an xG of 1.13 per game while Aberdeen have 5 at an xG of 0.78 per game. Like this one to go under. 0.5u on under 2.5 goals at 1.72

Celtic vs Hibs: Honestly if Hibs were at home I’d be all over Hibs or Draw. Despite the circumstances, home or away seems to be a factor when you look at the metrics (not the results). I don’t think Hibs get blown away. I’m going to go with Hibs +1.5u on the Asian handicap at 1.92 odds. Hard to see them getting blown out.

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(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/09/25 6:34:29 PM EST but are subject to change)

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