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Serie A Bets: July 12, 2020

Graeme Written on Saturday, July 11th, 2020

We’ve got a big slate of games in Serie A on Sunday and that’s what I will look at here.

There are 6 games taking place and its spread out a bit over the day which is nice so I’ve got Italian football from 11am EST until about 6pm EST which is perfect.

Add on the fact that Wolves vs Everton is at 7am and Villa vs Palace is at 9am and hell yeah – about 12 hours of football action.

UFC is tonight too so I’ll probably have to squeeze in a wee nap at some point there. We’ll see how it goes haha.

Let’s get right into the Serie A Games:

July 12th, 2020 Serie A Betting Tips:

Genoa vs SPAL: Genoa are favourites here. They haven’t been performing too bad. Yeah they only have 2 points in the post pandemic era however a couple of tough games against Juventus and Napoli. The only team worse than them are SPAL. Genoa are still battling against relegation. Honestly Genoa SHOULD win and their xGA is solid etc. The odds seem about right though. I’m going to go with Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 odds as I have my concerns about the offensive performances.

Cagliari vs Lecce: Lecce just got their first win in this era over Lazio. Cagliari have been pretty solid and didn’t lose to Fiorentina last week which was nice as I backed Cagliari or Draw for 3u! They are 1.70 favourites here. Lecce have had their scoring boots on lately though. This is one where I am almost tempted to bet against Cagliari. Lecce need to build upon that Lazio win and stay clear of relegation. However I do think Cagliari are the better side. No bet for me, although Draw or Lecce at 2.10 odds is very appealing.

Fiorentina vs Verona: This could be a good match. Verona coming off that draw over Inter Milan. Fiorentina beat Parma then drew 0-0 with Cagliari. Neither really has too much to play for although Verona would like to increase their leagus position and Fiorentina wouldn’t mind putting more space between them and relegation. i think these two cancel each other out. 1u on the Draw at 3.40 odds.

Parma vs Bologna: Parma have 4 defeats on the trot although have managed to score in every game in the pandemic era. Bologna scored in every one but the Juventus game. Neither team really has much to play for with mid table finishes for both. I’m down with backing goals in this match. There’s not too many team changes to affect that. Bologna miss Denswil due to suspension so that may even help. 2u on Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80 odds.

Udinese vs Sampdoria: Udinese have went 3 games unbeaten. Sampdoria had two wins over SPAL and Lecce before losing to the mighty Atalanta. Udinese would love the win here simply due to very poor home form. Both teams will be looking for the win to distance themselves from the relegation spots. Sampdoria have a higher xGA. Udinese actually have the lowest xGA in the last 5 games. based on the advanced metrics, I’m good with a 1u play on Udinese at 2.30 odds.

Napoli vs AC Milan: AC MIlan continue to pile up the bodies with Juventus and Lazio both defeated. Now they go to Napoli who have been great except for that Atalanta loss. Bookies still have Napoli as 2.05 favourites. This is one I am really looking forward to although from a betting perspective I am hesitant. I’ll probably back Draw or AC Milan but no official tip as I lean towards Napoli more. That’s just a bet for entertainment purposes.

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(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/07/11 11:39:57 AM EST but are subject to change)

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