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xPTS Betting System Week 9

Graeme Written on Monday, November 18th, 2019

With not too busy a schedule the next couple of days, I’ll do the xPTS Betting System today.

We got a bunch of new visitors after my quick plug over at yesterday so let me quickly explain what this system is. There are advanced analytics such as xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals against). I use these and more to come up with league tables for all major leagues based NOT on results, but on their performances on the field and expected goals etc.

I went into it in more detail on the Week 1 post.

This will be the 9th week. I should note that for the most part I just let the system run. I’d much rather run it for at least half the season, then look at fine-tuning it. So over Christmas time I’ll probably take some time to run some tweaks.

A lot of the picks are underdog picks or high odds picks which is why we’ll often have a tied or losing record with the picks, but profit in units.

Here are the current results of the system:

Week 1 Results: 3-4 (+0.42u)
Week 2 Results: 2-6 (-2.30u)
Week 3 Results: 4-6 (+2.8u)
Week 4 Results: 5-0 (+4.3u)
Week 5 Results: 2-2 (+0.75u)
Week 6 Results: 1-3 (-1.5u)
Week 7 Results: 4-4 (+1.34u)
Week 8 Results: 3-3 (+0.88u)

Total: 24-28 (+6.69u)

I’m fairly happy with the results so far. That 5-0 Week 4 was a bit of an anomaly and the last few weeks are where I expected the system to be – small gains primarily.

I cover the following leagues with it: EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and RFPL.

I do 0.5u or 1u betting based on confidence.

Let’s get onto week 9:

xPTS Betting System Week 9:

Everton -1.5 – 0.5u at 2.00 odds: First time applying handicap betting to the xPTS system. As I’ve said the past couple of weeks Norwich are just terrible while Everton are playing like a top 10 team. Everton should absolutely pound them here.

Watford/Burnley Draw – 0.5u at 3.40 odds: Hard to bet more than 0.5u on the draw. Both these teams are very evenly matched. Slight edge to Burnley but with them being away I think they cancel each other out.

Bournemouth/Wolves Draw – 0.5u at 3.30 odds: This one is actually very close to a Wolves win interestingly enough. They are 2.75 to win but if they were 3.00 I’d back them to win. As it is the draw is the mathematically better play here.

Villarreal to win – 1u at 1.75 odds: Villarreal should be a Top 5 team not languishing in 11th. Celta Vigo are slightly better than where they sit in the league but Villarreal should beat them.

Getafe to win – 0.5u at 2.87 odds: Espanyol are a weird team who are brutal at home but not too bad away. I feel like their home form HAS to turn around at some point but until it does….

Sevilla to win – 1u at 1.95 odds: Sevilla are an excellent team. Valladolid have been lucky a bit at home and while the draw looks good on paper, the away performances of Sevills are enough for me.

I can’t take it but I think there is razor thin value on Betis at 2.60 based on their home performances. One to keep an eye out for.

Werder Bremen to win – 0.5u at 2.45 odds: Based on their home form and there is just enough value here. If they were 2.25 I’d stay away.

0.5u on Dortmund -2.5 at 2.05 odds: This one should be a murder honestly.

Bologna to win – 1u at 1.85 odds: Bologna have actually burnt me a couple of times but their overall performances and Parmas away performances make this a must-bet.

Inter Milan to win – 0.5u at 1.80 odds: like Inter to continue their performances here. Excellent road team although they have been a bit fortunate, they still deserve to be the best team on the road.

Montpellier to win – 0.5u at 3.00 odds: Nice value play here as Saint-Etienne have been fortunate. From my own personal perspective I think the draw is more likely but this represents the most value.

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