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xPts Betting System: Week 7

Graeme Written on Friday, November 1st, 2019

First we’ll quickly handle this weeks SPL action. Only a couple of games taking place with cup action.

Hamilton vs Ross County Under 2.5 Goals: 1u on this one at 1.80 odds. These are two teams that have the worst xG stats in the league. It just feels like both teams will cancel each other out. Of course their goals conceded is a concern so it’s a tricky one as we’re backing bad offenses cancel out bad defenses.

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock: Aberdeen are overperofrming right now. Kilmarnock however really belong where they are at. Draw or Kilmarnock is the way play here. Just a small play though of 1u at 1.66 odds due to Aberdeen and their defensive performces against non Old Firm teams.

Motherwell to Win: They belong in 3rd place, nuff said. 1.95 odds is a nice price. Livingston are no pushover but we’ll go with 2u on this one.

Alright onto the xPts system.

It was a 1-3 week in midweek with the xPts system for -1.5u.

Our win was with Osasuna vs Mallorca. The system backed them to draw although it leaned close to an Osasuna win. Mallorca got two penalties in that one which finished 2-2.

The system had Bologna to win but Cagliari were the better team there and deserved the win. It also had Sevilla to win due to Valencia being overvalued. That one was soooo close alas Ruben Sobrino scored in the 81st minute for Valencia to make it 1-1.

The other one was Villarreal to beat Elbar. Elbar were up for that one and all over them. Elbar DID need a 95th minute goal to win but that one was a well deserved victory and no complaints.

xPts Betting System Week 7

Man Utd to win: Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. The system liked them to beat Newcastle and we backed them but we all know what happened there. It then expected them to give Norwich a hiding and that happened. I really don’t want to back them here but I’ve got to. 0.5u at 2.15 odds.

Everton/Spurs Draw: The system actually leans on Everton to win however interestingly enough when you break it down to home/away, they don’t look as impressive even though they’re at home. Made the executive decision to go with the draw. 0.5u at 3.50.

Brighton to beat Norwich: System feels Brighton are a top 10 team and Norwich are terrible. 1u at 1.66 odds.

Osasuna to win: Nothing too huge in La Liga right now in terms of teams overperforming or underperforming. This is a slight lean. 0.5u at 2.05.

Bremen/Freigburg Draw: Not much separating the two teams even with the home/road split. 0.5u at 3.80.

Spal vs Sampdoria Draw: Curious about this one. Overall xPts has Sampdoria as much better but home/away brings it much closer. Worth a small bet on the draw. 0.5u at 3.30 odds

Montpellier to beat Metz: System ranks Montpellier Top 5 and Metz bottom 3. The home/road split makes it a bit trickier though especially with Montpellier yet to win on the road. We’ll go ,0.5u for 2.87.

Lokomotiv Moscow to win: They belong where they are and FC Ufa don’t. 1u at 2.00.

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