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xPTS Betting System Week 4

Graeme Written on Monday, October 7th, 2019

We’re now onto Week 4 of the xPTs Betting System. The international break interrupts things so this is a couple weeks to go. Nothing should really change though. In saying that I’ll check after international if anything should change. I completely forgot international break was this week and wrote this all up beforehand.

So consider this a placeholder and I’ll confirm next week whether we are going with all of this or not.

It was a profitable week 3.

Each week we have posted a losing record, however thanks to underdog plays and correct bet sizing have a nice profit. Most of our losses last week were 0.5u while we won with the 1u plays. So that was nice.

It’s too early to start making any real assessments, but that’s a solid indicator that I’m able to read the data correctly in terms of betting unit assessment.

Here’s a quick recap of week 3:

Soton vs Chelsea Over 2.5: Win. Felt Southampton would be more competitive here but I’ll take the win thanks to Chelsea.

Man Utd vs Newcastle: Loss. Solksjaer needs to go.

Arsenal/B’Mouth Over 3.5: Loss. Brutally wrong there as it was just a 1 goal game.

Villareal to beat Osasuna: Loss. A real 50/50 game that could have went either way.

Bologina to win: Loss. Probably deserved to win but only drew 2-2 with Lazio.

Napoli to beat Torino: Loss. Midweek game may have affected their offense. Got the chances but shooting was awful.

AC Milan to win: Win. Beat Genoa 2-1 in a tight one.

Reins to win: Win. Loved this one as it was 3.50 odds and I said “probably win with a clean sheet”. They won 1-0.

Dijon to win: Win. Felt good to see them beat Strasbourg.

Ufa/Akhmat Draw: Loss. Very surprised Akhmat got the win there if anything I’d have expected Ufa to win.

Week 1 Results: 3-4 (+0.42u)
Week 2 Results: 2-6 (-2.30u)
Week 3 Results: 4-6 (+2.8u)

Let’s get on with Week 4. There are no midweek games so it’s all from Friday onwards. Like I said I like to do it early so the picks aren’t “fresh” in my mind when I tackle this weekends action as I don’t want it to be an influencer at all. That DOES mean injuries etc can affect tips – but that can be both positively and negatively and can balance out.

xPTS Betting System Week 4:

The Bundesliga interestingly enough is pretty much right on track at the moment. Top half of the table is more or less correct. Only a couple of small differences in that Dortmund should be higher for example. Not much to back there right now though. Might be some marginal plays but I am looking for bigger discrepancies.

Not advising it but wouldn’t shock me if Bologna get something out of the Juve clash.

Everton to beat West Ham: A brutal run Everton have been on but even if you run the xPTs system over just their last 4 games they should be doing a lot better. At least 6 points as opposed to 0. 2.00 odds, 1u. I like them here.

Southampton or Draw: 2.00 odds, 0.5u play. Wouldn’t surprise me if Southampton win. Wolves aren’t big home performers so far this season.

Villarreal to win: 2.50 odds, 1u play. Villarreal on the xPTs alone are topping the table. Espanyol are where they belong.

Getafe to Win: 1.95 odds, 0.5u play. Marginal but Getafe are slightly better than where they’re at.One of those plays where if it was 1.80 I’d stay away. Getting enough value.

Monaco to beat Rennes: 1u. 1.75 odds. Based on the system Rennes should be bottom. Monacos concern is their xGA but Rennes have a very low xG so should do the business.

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