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xPTS Betting System: Week 3

Graeme Written on Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019

Welcome to Week 3 of the xPTs Betting System.

Unfortunately after a profitable Week 1 and some lessons learned, Week 2 didn’t work out too well at all.

Here’s a quick look back at week 2:


Chelsea & Brighton Draw 0.5u. Loss. Big loss even at 2-0. Chelsea could and should have won 4-0 or 5-0. Lampard might have them ticking.

Southampton or Draw. Against Spurs. Lost 2-1. Close one and gutting Soton couldn’t get something out of it against 10 men.

Osasuna or Draw. 0.5u. Against Real Madrid. Loss. Osasuna were shut down hard.

Hertha Berlin or Draw. Against Cologne. Easy win. Hertha thumped them 4-0.

Fiorentina & Sampdoria Draw. 0.5u. Loss. Fiorentina won 2-1 in a deserved win.

Strasbourg or Draw. Loss. Against Lille. Lille dominated and easily deserved the win.

Montpellier to win. Win. Montpellier won in a tight one.

Sevilla to win. 0.5u. Loss. Crushing one as Sevilla were up 2-0 with 65 minutes on the clock. Elbar got a penalty to get them back into the match and ended up winning 3-2. The rest of the losses I can say “yup that deserved to lose” but this was a bad luck one.


Week 1 Results: 3-4 (+0.42u)
Week 2 Results: 2-6 (-2.30u)

xPTS Betting System Week 3 Predictions:

1u unless stated otherwise.

Southampton vs Chelsea Over 2.5: 0.5u. Both teams are highly competitive right now and should be higher. I’d do more but I try not to use this system for overs.

Man Utd to beat Newcastle: Regardless of what you think of Utds results, this should be a bloody proper thrashing on paper. 1.90.

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Over 3.5 Goals: The way both teams are offensively and defensively it should in theory be a cracker of a match. 0.5u as much as I want to bet the 1u. 1.90 odds.

Villarreal to beat Osasuna: 0.5u. 2.25 odds. Main concern is Osasuna defensively and a 0-0 draw is possible. Villarreal have highest xG in league though and I think can overcome that.

Levante or Draw. 1.80 odds. Leganes probably don’t deserve to be bottom but Levante I’d rate higher even though they concede the chances.

Bologna to win: 0.5u. 3.00 odds. Very tight but may have what it takes to beat Lazio.

Napoli to win: 0.5u due to midweek game. 2.00 odds. Their offense should get the goals here and don’t think Torino have what it takes to compete.

AC Milan to win: 0.5u due to their last 3 games but I think with the home/away split they take this one. 2.45.
Reims to win: On paper they should probably win with a clean sheet. 3.50 odds.

Dijon to win: 2.60 odds. Despite no wins at home they perform well here. Strasbourg haven’t looked good away.

FC Ufa vs FC Akhmat to Draw: Hard to separate these two sides. 3.00 odds. 0.5u play as FC Ufa being at home may be enough of an advantage. (If home/away was split I’d probs do 1u).



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