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xPTS Betting System: Week 2

Graeme Written on Monday, September 23rd, 2019

Welcome to Week 2 of the xPTS Betting System. I wrote a lot about it in the Week 1 Post so if this is your first time reading about it, you may want to read that article for an introduction to it.

Before we get into Week 2, let’s look at the results of Week 1 and a quick analysis.

Southampton to beat Bournemouth: Loss. The xG map for that one is crazy. This run by Bournemouth surely can’t be sustainable.

Chelsea or Draw: Loss. It was a good performance by Chelsea but clinical finishing by Liverpool was the difference.

Newcastle vs Brighton: Draw. Won that one. Probably a bit fortunate Brighton didn’t hit the net.

Bilboa vs Alaves: Loss. Brutal performance by Alaves.

Montpellier or Draw: Win. To be honest this was a lucky one. xG was 1.10 to 0.10 although the early goal changed the flow of the game a bit.

Lille to win: Loss. This was a draw. I said I’d prefer Lille or Draw here but it was just 1.53. Something I’ll bear in mind especially this early in the season as the variance is higher. In hindsight this is one that should have not been a bet. Only one I have an issue with in retrospect.

CSKA Moscow to Win: Win. This was my favourite play of the weekend and glad to see it come in.

I won’t be including the over 4.5 from City/Watford in the stats as that was just a casual mention.

Week 1 Results: 3-4 (+0.42u)

So a solid enough outing. Bit of good luck and bit of bad luck to balance it all out.

Let’s look at this weeks action:

xPTS Betting System Week 2 Predictions:

I’ve decided to incorporate half unit betting to cover the more riskier plays.

Very tempting to back the draw in Watford vs Wolves. Only thing holding me back is that 8-0 thrashing and how Watford respond. Bologna to win is a close one but it reminds me of that Lille bet and I can’t take it.

Not advising it personally but there is probably value in Reims or Draw against PSG. To me it’s a very tricky one and 5.50 odds – I might personally bet it but I can’t add it into the system.

There is midweek games in Italy, France and Spain. I will cover those and in a tips post later in the week, post any additional plays for the weekend and update this post.

Chelsea vs Brighton: Draw at 4.50. 0.5u.. Chelsea don’t belong in 11th in the league. They should be Top 6. However Brighton belong among there too currently even though they are 17th. Brighton have been unlucky. In saying that their finishing is poor. This is the game that motivated me to incorporate half unit betting.

Tottenham vs Southampton: Draw or Southampton at 2.75. 1u. Southamptons away form has been excellent so far and they could be a surprising contender against Spurs here.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna: Draw or Osasuna at 4.33. 0.5u. Osasuna are excellent at home and decent enough away that they may steal something from this fixture.

Cologne vs Hertha Berlin: Draw or Hertha. 1.66 Odds. 1u. It’s tough with ltitle data so far but Hertha Berlin look solid away so far. Colonge have disappointed in their home games thus far.

Fiorentina vs Sampdoria. Draw. 3.60 odds. 0.5u. An interesting one where both teams are at the foot of the table yet both should be mid-table. Very close in stats. Fiorentina the better team overall and may pip this one by a goal but the draw is worth a play.

Lille vs Strasbourg: Strasbourg or Draw. 1.83 odds. 1u. In 16th place but do not belong there. Strasbourg should get something out of this game.

Montpellier vs Nimes: Montpellier to win. 1u. They were lucky on the weekend but they still overall should be higher than they are while Nimes are just asking for the goals to be put past them.

Sevilla vs Elbar: Sevilla to win. 0.5u. League positions are about right for these two teams. Sevilla feel undervalued. Their away form has been solid.

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