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xPTS Betting System: Week 1

Graeme Written on Thursday, September 19th, 2019

Last week I, with the help of a friend, wrote an article comparing the EPL Table vs xG Diff Table.

I’m now going to utilize a weekly betting system based on this. It will be factoring in xG, XGA and xPTs (although primarily xPTS) and will be covering the major leagues in Europe.

I’ll ideally do this at the beginning of the week when there isn’t too much football to cover. It will not affect my regular tips. It will be a separate system just to give you an idea of how it works.

Expected goals etc stats aren’t the be all and end all when it comes to betting on soccer of course, and you should never consider that your only factor. Basing it on just one game isn’t a good idea either – it’s good to collect data as the season goes on and look more for trends than anything else.

Let’s say Watfords xG (expected goals) is much higher than the goals they have scored, and they are playing West Ham, a team whose xGA(expected goals against) is much higher than the actual goals conceded. That doesn’t mean you immediately bet the house on Watford winning or scoring goals – however it does give you a good baseline.

You take that stat and then look at everything else to see if it is worth the bet. All it is doing is establishing a bet. Extreme example ut Will Hughes has the highest xG for Watford while Gerard Deulofeu has the highest xA. If either of those were injured, then that would factor in and make it less likely it was a bet.

There’s also team mentality to factor in, opponent strength etc. As we do this each week I’ll talk more about it and explore the expected stats that much more. However one example is Dijon. Currently bottom of the Ligue 1 with 1pt, but they have xPTS of 6.53. Overall that just means they are unlucky and there could be good value ahead.

But one other thing you have to consider is how this run of bad luck is affecting them. When you’re on a losing run, it can hurt a teams confidence. So you have to dive into everything before deciding whether or not they are a bet.

So for me it’s essentially a multiple step system. I will:

  1. Note any of the more glaring differences in actual pts vs expected points.
  2. Make a list of teams to bet for or against.
  3. Look at the odds to see if a play is worthwhile.
  4. Dive into it more and decide whether it’s a play or not.
  5. Pick a maximum of 3 from each league.

Happy to explain more as the season goes on. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments. I’ll primarily focus on XPTS and only use the other expected stats when I get to step 4. Step 5 is the important one as it’s very easy to look at the stats and have them really support your narrative. So you create a shortlist, then filter it down until you are left with a max of 3.

With that, let’s get started with:

xPTS Betting System: Week 1

To make the math simpler, all plays will be considered 1u. It’s not my usual 1u however and is not part of the betting tips. Generally when I play around with betting systems, I do small bets of 0.25-0.5u. Odds listed beside each play. And remember this could be a complete disaster – it’s primarily to demonstrate how to factor this sort of thing in.

Southampton to beat Bournemouth – 2.00. Southampton are playing pretty much as expected, while Bournemouth are playing above themselves at the moment.

Chelsea or Draw – 1.72, Liverpool are playing above themselves at the moment and while that is going to add to their confidence, going to Stamford Bridge will be a tricky game.

Newcastle vs Brighton – Draw. 3.20 .Newcastle are playing as expected. Brighton could be doing slightly better. Brighton will be a challenge for Newcastle however I think it can be a draw.

(Watford are a team who really have had a lot of bad luck and should be doing better. Almost any other week they would be a bet but it’s City so ya know. Over 4.5 isn’t bad in that one all things considered)

Athletico Bilboa vs Alaves – Draw. 3.75 odds. Both teams have two draws among them. Bilboa are quite fortunate to be in the position they are in. Based on performances so far they should be more mid table. Alaves are a tight team offensively and defensively and this could be a dull draw affair.

(Nothing for Italy this week but one example – Bologna deserve to be where they are, and at a glance they are a strong value play against Roma. But then you look further into who they have been playing and realize that while they deserve to be in this position and probably with a 100% record, the opposition has been weak)

Montpellier or Draw. 1.72 odds. Could honestly see Montpellier winning at 4.20 odds. They are playing better and should be scoring more.

Lille to win. 3.20 odds. Value play here as Rennes have really been skirting their luck. I’d prefer Lille or Draw but just 1.53 odds.

CSKA Moscow to beat FC Krasnodar. 2.50 odds. Love this one. Krasnodar are top but 14.17xpts for Krasnodar compared to their 20pts. CSKA also playing a bit above themselves but playing much better. Krasnodar have been especially fortunate away.



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